Restaurants and gyms are highly common sites of corona infection ... an American study confirms
American researchers revealed that the majority of coronavirus infections early in the epidemic can be traced back to restaurants, gyms, and religious institutions, in Chicago, for example, 10% of these places visited by people accounted for 85% of the expected infection rate in Corona, according to what was published Insider site.
And identifying these "high-prevalence sites for corona infection" could help guide strategies for reopening after lockdown, said study co-author Gyur Leskovic.
"The most dangerous places are restaurants, gyms, cafes and hotels ... these are all places where people are relatively crowded together for a long period of time," said Leskovic, associate professor of computer science at Stanford University.
A study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducted in July found that people who tested positive for coronavirus were more likely to report eating at a restaurant within the 14 days before their diagnosis, compared to those who tested negative.
Faced with questions of when, where, and how to reopen businesses during a pandemic, researchers have created a tool that simulates the spread of COVID-19 based on human mobility patterns.
99
The team, made up of scientists from Stanford University and Northwestern University, used aggregated anonymous mobile data to map the hourly movements of nearly 100 million people across the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States between March and May 2020.
Their model can help make future policy decisions in real time, allowing health officials to simulate the outcome of decisions to reopen different capabilities based on empirical data rather than waiting for weeks to see potential outcomes. Researchers have also published an online tool where anyone can experience reopening levels in Chicago, New York and San Francisco.
One of the most surprising findings from their analysis, Leskovic said, was the effect of stay-at-home orders on the spread of the disease. If no one had stayed home at the start of the pandemic, a third of the population would have been in areas modeled on COVID-19 within a month.
The size and breadth of sites, as well as the amount of time people spend there, affect the site's supercharging potential.
Leskovic said reopening is not something that does not accept all-or-nothing, so reducing the occupancy of a gym or restaurant can reduce potential contagion. In one simulation, they found that covering Chicago sites with a 20% maximum occupancy reduces the number of expected casualties by more than 80%.
The model also helps explain the higher infection rates in lower-income neighborhoods
Although the mobile phone data entered into the mobility model did not include details about socioeconomic status, the simulation was still able to accurately predict higher rates of infection in lower-income neighborhoods than in more affluent areas.
