A simple mathematical method to measure Corona risk in every city
American researchers have uncovered a simple way to find out the likelihood that someone has been infected with the emerging coronavirus. Based on a mathematical formula published on the Internet, it is widely popular
According to Sky News Arabia, this math equation is simple. It is based on recent data on the spread of the "Covid-19" epidemic, presented in an easy-to-read manner on a website that has received increasing success since its inception in July. At the initiative of researchers at Georgia Tech Institute in the United States
The methodology adopted for assessing the risk of infection transmission was endorsed in an article published in the prestigious "Nature" magazine
On Thursday, the "Covid-19 Risk" website recorded a large number of visits and messages appeared saying that an error sometimes occurred
Researchers assess risk potential based on the official number of cases counted each day at a given site
The model also takes into account that the actual number of infections is five to ten times higher than the total number of positive diagnostic tests
A user can base one of these two assumptions (5 or 10 times) in his calculations
Meanwhile, the percentages take into account the assumption that the risk is ten times higher
The user can also choose the size of the event while specifying the number of people expected to participate in it. Either 10, 25, 50, or a hundred, down to 5,000
The site adopts a strict approach, according to its founder, Joshua Weitz, as it is assumed that a person remains contagious for ten days, while other researchers believe that this period ranges between 5 and 6 days, although viral deposits remain later.
The approved model does not take into account that the person infected with the virus will most likely stay at his home and will not participate in the event after the symptoms appear, as its authors base on the fact that the majority of infections are caused by people who do not show symptoms to a large degree or absolutely, or who are unaware of their infection. source