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A simple mathematical method to measure Corona risk in every city

 A simple mathematical method to measure Corona risk in every city

American researchers have uncovered a simple way to find out the likelihood that someone has been infected with the emerging coronavirus. Based on a mathematical formula published on the Internet, it is widely popular

And this equation says for those who want to evaluate the risks, "If you are ten people around the same table, the risk that at least one of them will be infected with the virus is 32 percent in Paris, 18 percent in Washington, and 58 percent in Prague, for example."


According to Sky News Arabia, this math equation is simple. It is based on recent data on the spread of the "Covid-19" epidemic, presented in an easy-to-read manner on a website that has received increasing success since its inception in July. At the initiative of researchers at Georgia Tech Institute in the United States


The methodology adopted for assessing the risk of infection transmission was endorsed in an article published in the prestigious "Nature" magazine


On Thursday, the "Covid-19 Risk" website recorded a large number of visits and messages appeared saying that an error sometimes occurred


Researchers assess risk potential based on the official number of cases counted each day at a given site


The model also takes into account that the actual number of infections is five to ten times higher than the total number of positive diagnostic tests


A user can base one of these two assumptions (5 or 10 times) in his calculations


Meanwhile, the percentages take into account the assumption that the risk is ten times higher


The user can also choose the size of the event while specifying the number of people expected to participate in it. Either 10, 25, 50, or a hundred, down to 5,000


The site adopts a strict approach, according to its founder, Joshua Weitz, as it is assumed that a person remains contagious for ten days, while other researchers believe that this period ranges between 5 and 6 days, although viral deposits remain later.


The approved model does not take into account that the person infected with the virus will most likely stay at his home and will not participate in the event after the symptoms appear, as its authors base on the fact that the majority of infections are caused by people who do not show symptoms to a large degree or absolutely, or who are unaware of their infection. source

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